Week 3 Recap

Washington bails out Detroit - headline at washingtonpost.com. Still makes me laugh.
Another wacky week in football with some games leaving me scratching my head at what went on.
Anywho, lets get to the scores.
Picks: 11-5
Spread: 12-4

New York Jets - 24
Tennessee Titans - 17
Pick - Jets
Spread - Jets -2.5
Solid pick, not surprise as Titans defense doesn't look intimidating anymore.

Jacksonville Jaguars - 31
Houston Texans - 24
Pick - Texans
Spread - Texans -3.5
With the Texans beating Titans last week I thought they would trounce the Jags. Still unsure of both of these teams.

Philadelphia Eagles - 34
Kansas City Chiefs - 14
Pick - Chiefs
Spread - Chiefs +9.5
I plan on picking against the Eagles for most of the year, chances are I will get most of the games right.

Baltimore Ravens - 34
Cleveland Browns - 3
Pick - Ravens
Spread - Ravens -13.5
Browns continue to live up to the low standards set for them. Ravens starting to show why they might be the team to beat in the AFC.

New York Giants - 24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 0
Pick - Giants
Spread - Giants -6.5
No surprise here.

Detroit Lions - 19
Washington Redskins - 14
Pick - Redskins
Spread - Lions
I mentioned in my picks - If the Lions can put up 20+ points they should get their first win. They almost followed through and won with 19 points.

Green Bay Packers - 36
St. Louis Rams - 17
Pick - Packers
Spread - Packers -6.5
Packers looked sloppy. Either they have their eyes set on Monday night against the Vikings or they have not improved much from last year.

Minnesota Vikings - 27
San Francisco 49ers - 24
Pick - Vikings
Spread - 49ers +6.5
Shame Singletary decided to go into prevent defense at the end. I thought the Niners had this game locked up.

New England Patriots - 26
Atlanta Falcons - 10
Pick - Falcons
Spread - Falcons -4.5
Pats dominated most of the game. Makes me think back to last week and how the Jets dominated the Pats. Going to be an interesting season.

Chicago Bears - 25
Seattle Seahawks - 19
Pick - Bears
Spread - Bears -2.5
Starting to wonder if Forte is suffering a sophomore slump. Wish the Bears would have worn their off color bright orange jersey, would have matched the Hawks lime green quite well.

New Orleans Saints - 27
Buffalo Bills - 7
Pick - Saints
Spread - Saints -6.5
TO still has not caught a pass. Bet he wished he signed with the Saints about now. Brees has completed a pass to everyone on the team and the water boy in the first three weeks.

San Diego Chargers - 23
Miami Dolphins - 13
Pick - Chargers
Spread - Miami +5.5
Chargers still in their normal start of season slump. They just happened to catch a bad Miami team on a short week.

Cincinnati Bengals - 23
Pittsburgh Steelers - 20
Pick - Steelers
Spread - Bengals +3.5
Steelers suffering without Polamalu in the lineup. The Bengals are finally living up to the hype they generated last year, hope Palmer stays healthy.

Denver Broncos - 23
Oakland Raiders - 3
Pick - Broncos
Spread - Broncos -1.5
Tough watching Russell waste away in Oakland, guy might have a chance to improve somewhere else under good coaching.

Indianapolis Colts - 31
Arizona Cardinals - 10
Pick - Colts
Spread - Colts +2.5
Shame they closed the roof on the stadium. Warner might have been able to make a wish on a shooting star while spending half the night on his back. Cards looking horrible.

Dallas Cowboys - 21
Carolina Panthers - 7
Pick - Cowboys
Spread - Cowboys -8.5
DelHomme bailed me out vs the spread in the 4th when he threw a TD pass for the Cowboys. Both teams need to improve.

Week 3 Picks

After a decent showing last week I approach week 3 more open minded. A few teams are still not showing their true colors and make some picks pretty difficult.
Are the Jaguars really that bad, probably.
Which Cardinals teams will show up to play this week? No clue.
Is Cutler a viable choice for League MVP? Definitely! Maybe a stretch but I am a Bears fan.
Pull point spreads off Station Casinos parlay card, this is just for fun so I'm not to concerned about accuracy of the point spreads.
A - sign means the team is favored by that many points.
A + sign means that team is the underdog.
Points are often presented as .5 to avoid ties or a "push" in sports book talk.

Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
Jets by 2.5
Rex Ryan has the Jets playing tough defense and the Jets have yet to allow a touchdown on D. Following the Patriots win this is a good let down game for the Jets, but I think they won't allow that to happen.
Titans play a tough defensive game against the Steelers and a shoot out against the Texans. Look for this game to be a close defensive game with the Titans on the short end of the stick once again.
Pick - Jets
Spread - Jets -2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Texans by 3.5
Jaguars might be the smart pick on the road, don't seem to show up for home games. Texans also might be in for a let down after the big win against the Titans.
I think the offense finally started clicking for the Texans and I can't see the Jaguars keeping pace.
Pick - Texans
Spread - Texans -3.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles by 9.5
Cassel isn't making smart plays at QB and Larry Johnson is still not quite back to form as a top RB. With Kolb as starter and the sideshow surrounding the game look for the Chiefs to squeek out a win. Brees shredded the Eagles D by making throws against the blitz, if Cassel can do the same it will be a dark day in Philly.
Pick - Chiefs
Spread - Chiefs +9.5

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Ravens by 13.5
Ravens offense is throwing up a lot of points, but their defense is allowing almost as much. See the Ravens breaking 40+ points. Unsure if the Browns will be able to keep pace. The points are too much for me to put money on, but I'd be willing to say the Ravens just might cover.
Pick - Ravens
Spread - Ravens -13.5

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Giants by 6.5
Caddillac Williams is out for TB which leaves their offense with a bunch of people I don't know. Look for the Giants to win big.
Pick - Giants
Spread - Giants -6.5

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Redskins by 6.5
If the Lions can put up 20+ points they should get their first win. A lot of people are actually picking the Lions here which might give the 'Skins some motivation, but motivation won't score points.
Pick - Redskins
Spread - Lions

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams
Packers by 6.5
The Bengals surprised the Packers last week and the Packers let them by playing sloppily. Look for the Packers to take it out on the Rams, the worst team in football. Key for the Rams is to get Steven Jackson going early and often.
Pick - Packers
Spread - Packers -6.5

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Vikings by 6.5
Game of the week in my opinion. Last time Adrian Peterson played the 49ers he was held to 14 yards due largely to Patrick Willis. Peterson says he remembers that game well, being the worst of his career, and he wants to have a huge day. I think Patrick Willis might have something to say about that. Look for the Vikings to have blocking schemes to go after Willis on running plays, if they don't look for another low yardage day for Peterson.
Pick - Vikings
Spread - 49ers +6.5

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
Falcons by 4.5
Oh how the mighty have fallen. I would like to see a Pats win here to stop them from sliding to 0-3 but without a serious running game or defense I don't see that happening. Brady is young and the Pats have robbed teams of plenty of draft picks for them to retool quickly, but that won't help them this year.
Pick - Falcons
Spread - Falcons -4.5

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Bears by 2.5
Cutler let me down by throwing only 2 touchdowns against the Steelers. Once again I will put my faith in him and ask for 4 touchdowns. Problem is with Tatupu out the Bears just might run the ball all day with Matt Forte. Seneca Wallace has yet to throw an interception as a starter at home, problem is he also has not thrown for many TD's.
Pick - Bears
Spread - Bears -2.5

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Saints by 6.5
Look for the saints offensive juggernaut to put up another 40+ points. 45 first game, and 48 the second. Maybe break 50 this week? Doubtful, but look for T.O to have another outburst when his team cannot keep up. This might be a different matchup in December when yards in the air are harder to come by in Buffalo, but it is September and Brees is not slowing down just yet.
Pick - Saints
Spread - Saints -6.5

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers
Chargers by 5.5
Look for it to be a close game with Rivers making a heroic drive in the 4th quarter to get the lead or run out the clock. Miami has had a tough week playing monday night and traveling cross country, fortunately they play the Chargers. Until Norv Turner has his teams ready to play before midseason it is best to avoid them and the spread for non-division games.
Pick - Chargers
Spread - Miami +5.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Steelers by 3.5
Steelers look like an easy pick here. If you can get them at 2.5 or 3 they might be. Bengals could be 2-0 if not for a fluke pass against the Broncos, don't underestimate them. I just see this being a very close game, with Steelers winning by 3. The Steelers can run away with this game if they can get a few turnovers or a few lucky bounces.
Pick - Steelers
Spread - Bengals +3.5

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Broncos by 1.5
These division games are always great matchups and fun to watch. Until Jamarcus Russell can get his completion percentage above 50% the Raiders are going to have a hard time winning. Broncos have been winning ugly and close, but winning nonetheless.
Pick - Broncos
Spread - Broncos -1.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals by 2.5
Colts have played two tough opponents in close games, but won both contests. Look for the Cardianls to be Jekyl and Hyde this year - good on the road and sloppy at home. This week they are at home.
Pick - Colts
Spread - Colts +2.5

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys by 8.5
I imagine Jerry Jones already has Wade Phillips termination notice written up and maybe even hanging in his office as a signal to get things going. After blowing the home opener against the Giants the Cowboys get a break when the Panthers come to town. Jake Delhomme is going to be under pressure all game and he is going to make some mistakes. What might be a close game at the half will lead to a blowout in the 2nd half with the 'Boys piling it on late.
Pick - Cowboys
Spread - Cowboys -8.5

Week 2 Recap

Today we will recap the previous week and see how our picks fared.
Correct picks will be in red.
Incorrect picks will be in blue.
25-7 on my picks. Not a bad start to the year.
12-4 picking straight up winners.
13-3 picking against the spread.

Raiders - 13
Chiefs - 10
Pick - Raiders
Spread - Raiders +4
Both correct. Yay me.

Texans - 34
Titans - 31
Pick - Titans
Spread - Titans -7
Ouch, way off.

Jets - 16
Patriots - 9
Pick - Patriots
Spread - Jets +5.5
Split this pick, Patriots didn't put on much of a show.

Bengals - 31
Packers - 24
Pick - Packers
Spread - Bengals +9
Another surprise upset, another split pick.

Vikings - 27
Lions - 13
Pick - Vikings
Spread - Lions +9.5
Lions led the first half only to get beat up in the second half.

Saints - 48
Eagles - 22
Pick - Saints
Easy pick, yay for me.

Falcons - 28
Panthers - 20
Pick - Falcons
Spread - Falcons -6.5
Spot on here as well.

Redskins - 9
Rams - 7
Pick - Redskins
Spread - Rams +10
One of the worst games of the day. Are Redskins that bad or do Rams just have their number?

Cardinals - 31
Jaguars - 17
Pick - Jaguars
Spread - Jaguars -3
Still unsure of Cardinals so far this season, Jaguars didn't put up much of a fight.

49ers - 23
Seahawks - 10
Pick - 49ers
Spread - 49ers -1.5
Singletary is doing a great job in SF.

Bills - 33
Bucs - 20
Pick - Bills
Spread - Bills -4.5
No surprise here.

Broncos - 27
Browns - 6
Pick - Broncos
Spread - Broncos -3
Are the Broncos for real? Hard to say since they play in the weakest division in the NFL.

Ravens - 31
Chargers - 26
Pick - Ravens
Spread - Ravens +3.5
Ravens offense looks great, but their once feared D is giving up a lot of points.

Bears - 17
Steelers - 14
Pick - Bears
Spread - Bears +3
Cutler for league MVP.

Giants - 33
Cowboys -31
Pick - Giants
Spread - Giants +2.5
Giants spoil the opening of Cowboys new stadium.

Colts - 27
Dolphins - 23
Pick - Colts
Spread - Colts - 3

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NFL Games Week 2

Only doing detailed picks for a few teams this week. Look for a more in depth analysis next week.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs favored by 4
The Chiefs are the favorite here due to home field advantage. While Arrowhead stadium used to be one of the worst places to visit for opposing teams the energy there has dropped off with the Chiefs success. Matt Cassel is healthy enough to play and is projected to start.
The Raiders came out Monday night and punched the Chargers in the nose and never let up. If Russell was a bit more accurate it could have been an easy game. As things go the Chargers pulled away in the 4th quarter for a victory.
Look for the Raiders to dominate the Chiefs on both sides of the football and squeeze out a victory.
Pick - Raiders
Spread - Raiders +4

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Titans favored by 7
Houston was projected as a preseason favorite to make the playoffs. After a drubbing by the Jets in week 1 the expectations have lowered quite a bit.
Titans had a tough loss in Pitssburgh in week 1. Look for them to manhandle the Texans and walk away with an easy victory.
Pick - Titans
Spread - Titans -7

New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Patriots favored by 5.5
With all the trash talking surrounding this game quite a few people think this is game of the week. I disagree, this could be a fight for the division title though. The Jets are an up and coming team with a loud mouth coach. The Patriots are looking to find their way back into Super Bowl form with Tom Brady back. Should be a tough smash mouth game with the Patriots getting a win in the 4th quarter.
Pick - Patriots
Spread - Jets +5.5

Cinncinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers
Packers favored by 9
Bengals D looked sharp last week, the only problem is it was against the Broncos. Look for the Packers to look better than they did against the Bears and win this game easily with a low score.
Pick - Packers
Spread - Bengals +9

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Vikings favored by 9.5
Vikings should win this game in a blowout. For some reason they always struggle against Detroit. I'll pick the Vikings to win, but the game should be close.
Pick - Vikings
Spread - Lions +9.5

New Orleans Saints @ Philidelphia Eagles
Pick - no favorite
McNabb is out for this game after suffering a rib injury in week 1. The Eagles D will step up and make some plays but Drew Brees will have a huge day.
Pick - Saints

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Falcons favored by 6.5
This game depends on which Jake Delholmme shows up. I am guessing someone in between good Jake and bad Jake which will not put up enough points to beat the Falcons.
Pick - Falcons
Spread - Falcons -6.5

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins
Redskins favored by 10
Should be an easy win for the Redskins, it should have been an easy win last year too. See the 'Skins winning but not by much.
Pick - Redskins
Spread - Rams +10

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars favored by 3
Jaguars looked decent against the Colts in week 1, but don't look to have it together yet. Good thing the Cards are coming to town. Cardinals struggles on the east coast look to continue until some receivers get healthy.
Pick - Jaguars
Spread - Jaguars -3

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
49ers favored by 1.5
What looks to be a fight for the division crown I'll give the edge to the 49ers with home field. Look for a close low scoring game won by a field goal in the 4th quarter.
Pick - 49ers
Spread - 49ers -1.5


Tampa Bay Bucs @ Buffalo Bills
Bills favored by 4.5
Look for Bills to come out fired up after a heartbreaking loss to the Patriots.
Pick - Bills
Spread - Bills -4.5

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Broncos favored by 3
My pick for lowest scoring game of the week. No touchdowns and 4-5 field goals.
Pick - Broncos
Spread - Broncos -3

Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers
Chargers favored by 3.5
With Norv Turner as coach the Chargers will not be at full speed until week 4 or 5.
Pick - Ravens
Spread - Ravens +3.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears
Steelers favored by 3
(Biased pick) Look for the Bears to get to Big Ben early and often. Look for Ben to have more interceptions than touchdowns. Cutler will emerge from his shell and toss 4 touchdowns to avenge the 4 interceptions he threw against the Packers.
Pick - Bears
Spread - Bears +3

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys favored by 2.5
Probably the worst opponent the Cowboys could face to christen their new stadium. Somehow I think it was arranged that way and not left up to random scheduling.
Pick - Giants
Spread - Giants +2.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins
Colts favored by 3
Bob Sanders is out for the Colts, fortunately they are use to it by now. Look for a low scoring game with Peyton getting the win in the 4th quarter after a rough day.
Pick - Colts
Spread - Colts - 3