Week 3 Picks

After a decent showing last week I approach week 3 more open minded. A few teams are still not showing their true colors and make some picks pretty difficult.
Are the Jaguars really that bad, probably.
Which Cardinals teams will show up to play this week? No clue.
Is Cutler a viable choice for League MVP? Definitely! Maybe a stretch but I am a Bears fan.
Pull point spreads off Station Casinos parlay card, this is just for fun so I'm not to concerned about accuracy of the point spreads.
A - sign means the team is favored by that many points.
A + sign means that team is the underdog.
Points are often presented as .5 to avoid ties or a "push" in sports book talk.

Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
Jets by 2.5
Rex Ryan has the Jets playing tough defense and the Jets have yet to allow a touchdown on D. Following the Patriots win this is a good let down game for the Jets, but I think they won't allow that to happen.
Titans play a tough defensive game against the Steelers and a shoot out against the Texans. Look for this game to be a close defensive game with the Titans on the short end of the stick once again.
Pick - Jets
Spread - Jets -2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Texans by 3.5
Jaguars might be the smart pick on the road, don't seem to show up for home games. Texans also might be in for a let down after the big win against the Titans.
I think the offense finally started clicking for the Texans and I can't see the Jaguars keeping pace.
Pick - Texans
Spread - Texans -3.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles by 9.5
Cassel isn't making smart plays at QB and Larry Johnson is still not quite back to form as a top RB. With Kolb as starter and the sideshow surrounding the game look for the Chiefs to squeek out a win. Brees shredded the Eagles D by making throws against the blitz, if Cassel can do the same it will be a dark day in Philly.
Pick - Chiefs
Spread - Chiefs +9.5

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Ravens by 13.5
Ravens offense is throwing up a lot of points, but their defense is allowing almost as much. See the Ravens breaking 40+ points. Unsure if the Browns will be able to keep pace. The points are too much for me to put money on, but I'd be willing to say the Ravens just might cover.
Pick - Ravens
Spread - Ravens -13.5

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Giants by 6.5
Caddillac Williams is out for TB which leaves their offense with a bunch of people I don't know. Look for the Giants to win big.
Pick - Giants
Spread - Giants -6.5

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Redskins by 6.5
If the Lions can put up 20+ points they should get their first win. A lot of people are actually picking the Lions here which might give the 'Skins some motivation, but motivation won't score points.
Pick - Redskins
Spread - Lions

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams
Packers by 6.5
The Bengals surprised the Packers last week and the Packers let them by playing sloppily. Look for the Packers to take it out on the Rams, the worst team in football. Key for the Rams is to get Steven Jackson going early and often.
Pick - Packers
Spread - Packers -6.5

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Vikings by 6.5
Game of the week in my opinion. Last time Adrian Peterson played the 49ers he was held to 14 yards due largely to Patrick Willis. Peterson says he remembers that game well, being the worst of his career, and he wants to have a huge day. I think Patrick Willis might have something to say about that. Look for the Vikings to have blocking schemes to go after Willis on running plays, if they don't look for another low yardage day for Peterson.
Pick - Vikings
Spread - 49ers +6.5

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
Falcons by 4.5
Oh how the mighty have fallen. I would like to see a Pats win here to stop them from sliding to 0-3 but without a serious running game or defense I don't see that happening. Brady is young and the Pats have robbed teams of plenty of draft picks for them to retool quickly, but that won't help them this year.
Pick - Falcons
Spread - Falcons -4.5

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Bears by 2.5
Cutler let me down by throwing only 2 touchdowns against the Steelers. Once again I will put my faith in him and ask for 4 touchdowns. Problem is with Tatupu out the Bears just might run the ball all day with Matt Forte. Seneca Wallace has yet to throw an interception as a starter at home, problem is he also has not thrown for many TD's.
Pick - Bears
Spread - Bears -2.5

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Saints by 6.5
Look for the saints offensive juggernaut to put up another 40+ points. 45 first game, and 48 the second. Maybe break 50 this week? Doubtful, but look for T.O to have another outburst when his team cannot keep up. This might be a different matchup in December when yards in the air are harder to come by in Buffalo, but it is September and Brees is not slowing down just yet.
Pick - Saints
Spread - Saints -6.5

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers
Chargers by 5.5
Look for it to be a close game with Rivers making a heroic drive in the 4th quarter to get the lead or run out the clock. Miami has had a tough week playing monday night and traveling cross country, fortunately they play the Chargers. Until Norv Turner has his teams ready to play before midseason it is best to avoid them and the spread for non-division games.
Pick - Chargers
Spread - Miami +5.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Steelers by 3.5
Steelers look like an easy pick here. If you can get them at 2.5 or 3 they might be. Bengals could be 2-0 if not for a fluke pass against the Broncos, don't underestimate them. I just see this being a very close game, with Steelers winning by 3. The Steelers can run away with this game if they can get a few turnovers or a few lucky bounces.
Pick - Steelers
Spread - Bengals +3.5

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Broncos by 1.5
These division games are always great matchups and fun to watch. Until Jamarcus Russell can get his completion percentage above 50% the Raiders are going to have a hard time winning. Broncos have been winning ugly and close, but winning nonetheless.
Pick - Broncos
Spread - Broncos -1.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals by 2.5
Colts have played two tough opponents in close games, but won both contests. Look for the Cardianls to be Jekyl and Hyde this year - good on the road and sloppy at home. This week they are at home.
Pick - Colts
Spread - Colts +2.5

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys by 8.5
I imagine Jerry Jones already has Wade Phillips termination notice written up and maybe even hanging in his office as a signal to get things going. After blowing the home opener against the Giants the Cowboys get a break when the Panthers come to town. Jake Delhomme is going to be under pressure all game and he is going to make some mistakes. What might be a close game at the half will lead to a blowout in the 2nd half with the 'Boys piling it on late.
Pick - Cowboys
Spread - Cowboys -8.5